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The recent announcement of an expansion plan by China may be considered a boon for the United States following its strong position over North Korea and other issues. However, if this development is not accompanied by a policy shift in Asia, South Korea will not be able to take actions related to North Korea as they normally would have, as it has for decades. This would also make a major shift in policy. This point is discussed in Part 2 of our special feature of South Korea facing the consequences of an attack on its territory, The Korean Peninsula in Context.

It is in part thanks to the success of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) as an international lender to South Korea and its financial institutions that many of the world’s large companies have been forced to exit Korea and begin financing the construction of their business elsewhere. Many of these companies, or even most, of the other major banks have already signed agreements with South Korea, and some of the remaining are already paying off, as we have reported in our book Chapter 7 Economic Growth and Economic Success. Therefore, South Korea’s economic position is extremely uncertain.

Even if the political situation would not change, there is the issue of investment pressure on the Chinese side. The South has very strong financial and economic links with China in the past. But in recent months, there have been reports of high-level diplomatic and economic ties between China and the South. China has repeatedly demanded that South Korea cease a military buildup to the Korean peninsula, but Seoul and Beijing have refused to do so, and are expected to continue their current diplomatic and economic links for years to come. Even though North Korea’s recent missile tests are considered to amount to aggression, there has not been a significant threat from South Korea, which is in reality a small regional power. China and South Korea could find no mutually beneficial solution in a major crisis, and this could negatively impact their relationship.

Another concern is the increasing power of the Chinese Communist Party. If the Communist Party continues to hold on to the leadership positions of its founding members, and any change in leadership will result in another economic and military backlash against China or an increase in economic sanctions against Pyongyang, it could lead to further economic isolation, as the party could eventually make the decisions needed

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